Ethiopia stands among the most geographically fortunate nations in Africa. Fertile plains, abundant rivers and waterfalls, rich highlands, and diverse ecosystems testify to the country’s natural wealth. Geography has granted Ethiopia every tool for prosperity. Yet for more than a century, the nation’s greatest constraint has not been a prisoner of Geography, but its failure of governance—leadership that consistently mismanages resources, neglects the people and development, and destabilizes relations with its neighbors.
From the era of Haile Selassie onward, successive governments in Addis Ababa have squandered opportunities for growth by fixating on Eritrea. Instead of mobilizing Ethiopia’s agricultural and hydrological wealth, they pursued territorial ambitions, cloaking expansionist designs under the false claim that “Eritrea seeks to choke Ethiopia’s economy.” This narrative has served as a pretext for militarism at the expense of development. The result has been predictable: stunted progress, cycles of conflict, and the squandering of geography’s promise.
Ironically, Eritrea has long extended opportunities for economic cooperation and secure access to the sea, alongside similar offers from other neighboring states. Ethiopia could have capitalized on these choices, strengthening regional integration and securing reliable transit corridors. Instead, it has chosen confrontation over cooperation.
The “window to the sea” has become a political crutch—an excuse for Ethiopia’s persistent underperformance on human development indices, where famine and food insecurity dominate its international image. Ethiopia’s fertile soils and ample water supplies could provide food security and prosperity for generations, yet its leaders behave as if the Red Sea itself must irrigate Ethiopian fields.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has revived this tired discourse. Since October 2023, his rhetoric about Eritrea’s Red Sea has sought to transform geography into a rallying cry. Yet this narrative rings hollow. For Ethiopians, it is neither a vision nor a strategy—it is a distraction. What Ethiopia urgently requires is not sovereign ports, but sovereign governance: leadership that demonstrates discipline, channels natural resources into sustainable growth, and builds credibility and true prosperity for all at home and abroad.
Eritrea’s stance remains clear and uncompromising: its land and sea are not negotiable, neither through diplomacy nor force. In Asmara, the repeated threats and slogans of Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party are dismissed as posturing, devoid of strategic weight. The Eritrean Defence Forces, heavily engaged in national development projects alongside their security role, embody Eritrea’s confidence and long-term orientation toward resilience and progress.
For Eritreans, the central questions are not about Ethiopia’s intentions but about national priorities: Will development programs be delivered on time? Will ambitious social and economic targets be met? These questions define Eritrea’s policy focus—far more than the provocations from Addis Ababa.
As for Prime Minister Abiy, his leadership increasingly resembles that of a man offering illusions: suggesting that a sip of Red Sea water could remedy Ethiopia’s deep structural crises. Should his government continue to cast Eritrea’s sovereignty as negotiable under the guise of national destiny, the consequences will be decisive. Any confrontation would not only fail—it would reverberate back into Ethiopia, striking at the very legitimacy of his already fragile regime.
The policy lesson is unambiguous. Eritreans must remain steadfast, unmoved by daily propaganda. The true struggle is not rhetorical, but developmental: building resilience, pursuing sustainable growth, and safeguarding sovereignty. Ethiopia’s challenge lies not in being a prisoner of geography but in governance. Until that reality is confronted, its cycle of distraction and decline will persist.