There is little doubt that Ethiopia, in its current condition, has neither the capacity nor the rationale to wage war. Eritrea occupies no territory beyond its internationally recognized borders, as defined by the International Court of Justice, and it harbors no territorial ambitions beyond them. There is, quite simply, no legitimate cause for conflict.
Yet, despite this undeniable reality, the Prosperity Party government continues to raise the war trumpet, each day louder than the last. Its officials, proxies, and media acolytes have become a chorus of alarm, declaring with eerie confidence that “war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is imminent.”
Why such persistent warmongering?
The first reason seems painfully clear. The government in Addis Ababa may believe that psychological warfare is a crucial—perhaps the most crucial—instrument of modern politics. In the digital era, fear and distraction are weapons of choice. By fabricating external enemies, the Prosperity regime attempts to divert attention from its own internal chaos—the wars raging in Amhara and Oromia, the tensions in Tigray, and the mounting discontent across the country. The strategy is not new: when the walls close in, invent a foreign threat.
A second motive may lie in the international arena. The incessant refrain that “war could erupt tomorrow” is designed to alarm the region and the wider world. By invoking visions of a destabilized Horn of Africa, a disrupted Red Sea trade route, and a region sliding into chaos, the Prosperity Party hopes to rally external powers—or at least to manipulate their anxieties—to its own political advantage.
But this game of reckless brinkmanship is doomed to fail. No amount of noise or theatrical accusation can mask the truth or alter the balance of power. Ethiopia has already learned, painfully, what it means to provoke Eritrea into war. The consequences were catastrophic then, and would be suicidal now.
That is why Eritrea’s position remains ‘Stay Put‘ and “Learn from the past.” It is advice given not out of malice, but out of experience.
Still, one haunting question lingers: what if Prosperity, desperate and cornered, truly goes mad?
Translated from ERMedia Oped in Tigrigna Language